National Polls and Ratings Systems Shift Race Toward Indigenous Sheepherder Jonathan Nez

FLAGSTAFF, AZ - Numerous national polls and ratings systems have shifted the AZ-02 race toward Jonathan Nez in the final days of election season. A former President of Navajo Nation, Nez is running to represent the seat with the largest number of Native voters in the state of Arizona. He has focused his campaign on the Arizona water crisis and his record of working across the aisle to protect Northern Arizona’s water.

Sabato’s Crystal Ball and Inside Elections have both shifted the district from ‘Likely Republican’ to ‘Lean Republican,’ putting the district in a more likely position to flip. The shift comes after Cook Political Report changed the designation of the district from ‘Likely Republican’ to ‘Lean Republican.’ These shifts follow Nez’s top 10 overperformance of the 2024 cycle, putting this Trump +15 seat in play.

Nez is also surging ahead in the polls. A recent PollVault/Emerson poll taken from October 12 to October 14 shows Nez ahead of Congressman Eli Crane, 50% to 48%.

The ratings and polls shift arrive after Nez has made national and statewide broadcast appearances on:

MSNOW’s The 11th Hour with Ali Velshi, where Nez discussed his plans for working across the aisle to solve Arizona’s complex water problems.
NBC’s Meet the Press Now, where Nez described his race as a ‘David vs Goliath’ matchup: Nez versus the billionaires bailing Congressman Eli Crane out of his failed policies.
CNN News Central. Aired live and will be published.
12News’ Square Off: Decision 2026, where Nez talked about his upbringing as a sheepherder working on a rural ranch, and how that lifestyle influenced his run for Congress.
N+ Univision Arizona, where Nez described his agenda for AZ-02, including advocating for access to Colorado River water, supporting families struggling with the cost of living, and improving infrastructure in rural and Indigenous communities.
KTAR’s AZ Political Podcast, where Nez spoke about his plans to represent all Arizonans in Congress.

Here are the biggest headlines surrounding the latest on Nez’s campaign:

Axios Phoenix: Democrats eye strongly Republican 2nd Congressional District
KTAR News: Outside groups pour millions into Arizona’s 2nd Congressional District in final weeks
Arizona Daily Independent: Jonathan Nez: Enough is Enough at the Gas Pump
Payson RoundUp: Crane-Nez race tightens

SEE ALSO:

Jonathan Nez Website: Warrior Up Agenda