NEW RATING: Cook Political Report Shifts AZ-02 Toward Jonathan Nez

FLAGSTAFF, AZ - The Cook Political Report has changed the designation of the AZ-02 race from ‘Likely Republican’ to ‘Lean Republican.’

The move comes after Jonathan Nez’s campaign outraised Congressman Eli Crane by nearly $100,000 in Q3.

Just a day ago, a PollVault/Emerson poll conducted October 12–14 shows Jonathan Nez leading incumbent Congressman Eli Crane, 50% to 48%.

Nez was one of the top 10 overperformers of the 2024 election cycle, in ranks with Mary Peltola, Kristen McDonald-Rivet and Pat Ryan.

Now, he’s turning AZ-02 into a true battleground seat.

“As Arizona suffers from higher grocery and gas prices, a water crisis, and an explosion in health care costs, Congressman Eli Crane jets around the country on Air Force One with Trump and his court of corrupt billionaires,” said Mark Hatton, spokesperson for the campaign. “Crane has spent his time in Congress putting his political allies first and Arizona families last. Now, the Cook Political Report is recognizing what Arizonans already know: this race is competitive, and in 11 days, Jonathan Nez will make history.”

From Cook Political Report:

In his 2024 campaign against GOP Rep. Eli Crane, former Navajo Nation President Jonathan Nez campaigned heavily on protecting water access for the sprawling 2nd District. That issue,and access to health care in rural Arizona, have become even more salient this cycle. And this year, Crane doesn’t have the tailwinds that boosted him in 2024, when Donald Trump carried the district by 15 points.

Recent polling conducted by Emerson shows GOP gubernatorial candidate Andy Biggs only narrowly carrying the seat — and Nez with a two-point lead over Crane. Other private polling shows Crane with the edge, but it’s clear both parties view this race as competitive. No Going Back PAC is spending $3.5 million on this race, per AdImpact, airing ads praising Crane for “expanding rural hospital funding” and “improving access to clean water,” while tying Nez to “D.C. Democrats.” House Majority PAC, meanwhile, is hitting Crane for voting against releasing the Epstein files. This race moves from Likely to Lean Republican.

SEE ALSO:

• Jonathan Nez Website: Warrior Up Agenda